The Problem with Being Decisive -- 2

Ever made a bad decision? I know I have and it usually happened because I "trusted my gut." I went with what felt right to me at the time. I emphasize the word "felt" here because I'm not talking about decisions where something is clearly right or wrong e.g., should I attempt to take this item out of the store without paying for it, or fork over the cash. No, I'm referring to the kinds of decisions where a lot may be at stake, but there's no clear right answer.

• Should I accept a new job or stay put?

• Should we sell our house and move to a new neighborhood or make improvements to our current home?

• Should we take our relationship to a new level or back off?

• Should I hire this interviewee for a vacant position or keep looking?

As I wrote last week, I've found Dan and Chip Heath's new book, Decisive, to be very helpful in this area.

The danger we all face in making the kinds decisions described above is something researchers call "confirmation bias." Confirmation bias refers to our tendency to reach a conclusion quickly and then amass the data to support our decision while ignoring any evidence to the contrary. Of course, sometimes we're right, but all too often we are not. And when we're wrong the outcome can sometimes be disastrous.

How, then, can we discourage confirmation bias and improve our decision making skills?

Recognize Your Bias
According to experts, the first step in making better decisions is recognizing and acknowledging your bias. We all have preferences and we tend to arrive at them quickly.

"Unlike narrow framing, the confirmation bias is not easily disrupted. Even the smartest psychologists, who have studied the bias for years, admit that they can't shake it. It can't be wiped out; it can only be reined in" (p. 87-88, Heath & Heath, 2013).

Take job interviews, for example. Most people who have to interview others for a position figure they're pretty good at choosing the right candidate and they tend to place a lot of emphasis on how successfully the candidate interviews. Unfortunately, a significant number of folks who interview very well, demonstrate average or substandard work performance. According to Heath and Heath (2013), "Research has found that interviews are less predictive of job performance than work samples, job-knowledge tests, and peer ratings of past job performance. Even a simple intelligence test is substantially more predictive than an interview" (p.149).

Nevertheless, many employers continue to rely on the interview as the gold standard for decision making. Why? Because most all of us tend to think we're pretty good at interviewing--other people may make mistakes, but we can spot a winner. "We are Barbara Walters or Mike Wallace. We leave the interview confident that we've taken the measure of the person. The psychologist Richard Nisbett calls this the 'interview illusion': our certainty that we're learning more in an interview than we really are" (p. 150, Heath & Heath, 2013).

Or talk to a love-struck friend and you'll see the same sort of confidence magnified. They know, they absolutely KNOW, this is the person for them. Is the new person known for being a know-it-all and dominating every conversation? Doesn't matter. They're sure he's just unappreciated? Does he have difficulty keeping a job? Others clearly don't recognize the talent their new love has. Is there history of financial problems? Not an issue because love conquers all. Regardless of the concerns you express or the evidence you may offer, your friend dismisses or diminishes it all. When confirmation bias is in play, conflicting perspectives are unwelcome.

Welcome Disconfirmation
If we truly want to lessen the influence of confirmation bias we must learn to welcome and seriously consider perspectives other than our own. It has been said that men will pay a therapist $100 an hour to hear what their wives have been telling them for years. I'm not certain why the therapist has more influence, but the point is that they could have saved themselves a lot of time, money and misery had they listened to their wives much sooner.

In the workplace, wise executives and supervisors will resist the urge to make quick decisions because they can. Rather, they will welcome and encourage the views of those who disagree with them. Only in this way are they able to more clearly recognize potential errors in judgment and pitfalls with their perspective. Abraham Lincoln, with his "team of rivals," is perhaps one of the best known historical figures to excel in this area.

Being Decisive at Work and at Home
Regardless of whether you're a CEO of a large organization or a parent choosing a preschool for your four-year-old, making decisions is something we must do every day. Most will be routine, but for those with long term implications, it's good to remember that we have a bias and do our best to lessen its impact.

Next week we'll consider another enemy of good decisions--short term emotion.

Decisively yours,

Dr. Jennifer L. Baker